The Case for a $700B OpenAI and $5.8T NVIDIA

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A Bottom-Up, Valuation Framework For 2027

AI is powering a global economic transformation. By combining a bottom-up revenue model with valuation multiples proven by past hyper-growth companies like Salesforce and ServiceNow, we can make a disciplined and credible case for the near term value of companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and NVIDIA.

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Step 1: Bottom-Up AI Market Sizing

User Base Assumption:

• 4 billion people globally are touched by AI (50% of global population)

Average Monthly Spend per User:

• $5 for personal AI
• $20 for business use
• $4 for automation (e.g. AI cars, smart devices)
• Total: $29/month

Annualized Total Market:
$29 × 4B users × 12 months = $1.392 trillion

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Step 2: AI Spend Breakdown by Layer

• Infrastructure: $696B (50%)
• Applications: $511.5B (36.7%)
• Core Software: $184.5B (13.3%)

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Step 3: LLM Platform Revenue

Assuming 70% of Core Software spend goes to large language model (LLM) platforms:

• Total LLM spend: $129.2B

LLM Vendor Share:

• OpenAI (40%): $51.7B
• Anthropic (30%): $38.8B
• Others (30%): $38.8B

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Step 4: NVIDIA’s AI Revenue

Assuming NVIDIA captures 60% of infrastructure spend:

• 60% of $696B = $417.6B

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Step 5: Apply a Proven 14× Revenue Multiple

Why 14×?
During their breakout phases, companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Shopify all traded at 10× to 20× revenue.
14× is a conservative, historically proven mid-range multiple during 50%+ growth phases.

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Final Valuation Summary (14× Revenue)

OpenAI

• Revenue: $51.7B
• Valuation: $724B

Anthropic

• Revenue: $38.8B
• Valuation: $543B

NVIDIA

• Revenue: $417.6B
• Valuation: $5.85T

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Why This Works

• Built from the bottom up — based on real users and real spending behavior
• Uses valuation multiples proven by high-growth tech companies
• Treats NVIDIA not just as a chip company, but as a software-style AI platform with deep infrastructure lock-in

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This model doesn’t rely on inflated TAM or hype. It uses usage, spend, and precedent — and it suggests the next $10 trillion in enterprise value is already forming.

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