Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Tesla Rises more than 50% to $750 [Currently $430 Valuation $1.5tn]
Confidence Level HIGH – Commitment 20% portfolio
Why
- FSD excites mainstream media – people wake up to an iPhone moment and realise TSLA FSD is Real and will be as dominant in driving as Google in search
- Trump – Owes Elon big. Even if Musk upsets Trump, the fear that Musk would support a different candidate in the 2028 primaries
- Mergers e.g. Honda/Nissan shows mainstream media that legacy is un-investable.
- VW restructures or Merges
- One Major legacy Auto licenses Tesla FSD
- Tesla wins significant battery backup business from US government
- Optimus plays the piano!
- Did I mention lower cost car and refreshed model Y?
- TSLA component parts would justify current valuation many times over. EVs $500bn n 5 independent companies are
Click for Sum Of Parts Analysis
Here’s the updated table with the sum of Tesla’s segment valuations:
Tesla Business Segment | Description | Valuation Metric | Tesla Estimate | Peer Examples | Peer Valuation | Tesla Segment Valuation ($B) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Electric Vehicles (EV) | Core business of manufacturing EVs | P/S | ~6x Sales | BYD, Rivian, Lucid | BYD: ~3x, Rivian: ~5x, Lucid: ~10x | $515B |
Battery Business | Lithium mining to units | QS, Enovix | ? | |||
Energy Storage (Green Energy) | Powerwall and Megapack for energy storage solutions | P/S | ~10x Sales | Enphase Energy, NextEra Energy | Enphase: ~8x, NextEra: ~12x | $85B |
AI and Autonomy | Self-driving tech (Autopilot, FSD) | P/S | ~15x Sales | NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo | NVIDIA: ~20x, Mobileye: ~15x | $129B |
Software & Services | FSD subscriptions, Tesla app, over-the-air updates | P/E | ~80x Earnings | Palantir, Snowflake, Microsoft Azure | Palantir: ~75x, Snowflake: ~90x | $86B |
Solar Energy | Solar panels and solar roofs | P/S | ~12x Sales | Sunrun, SolarEdge | Sunrun: ~10x, SolarEdge: ~15x | $43B |
Final Valuation:
- Sum of all segments: $515B + $85B + $129B + $86B + $43B = $858B
Palantir $180 [PLTR: Currently $80]
Confidence Level HIGH – Commitment 15% portfolio
Click for Defining factors
- Massive existing contracts but only tiny penetration so far
- Amazon AWS partnership
- As PLTR becomes a more household name valuation will soar.
- Forward p/e of 80
- Q3 PEG of 1.9
- Charismatic leader
- Famous commercial clients – Tesla, BP, UK NHS, Airbus, Accenture +++
- Current valuation of $180bn is modest and imho given the trend in revenue growth could, at a stretch be valued on a par with Oracle ($500Bn)
- Forward p/e of 80
- Q3 PEG of 1.9
- Charismatic leader
- Famous commercial clients – Tesla, BP, UK NHS, Airbus, Accenture +++
- Current valuation of $180bn is modest and imho given the trend in reven
On The Radar
SoundHound
Serious Fortune 100 customers
more …
Some of SoundHound’s publicly known clients and partners include:
Automotive: Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes-Benz, Honda
Quick-Service Restaurants: White Castle (drive-thru AI pilot), and additional chains (not always publicly named)
Financial Services: Mastercard (voice-enabled payments exploration)
Media/Streaming: Pandora, Spotify
Tech & Consumer Electronics: Samsung, Snap (Snapchat music recognition)
Telecommunications & Others: Deutsche Telekom, VIZIO (voice-enabled devices)
These organizations integrate SoundHound’s Houndify platform to add voice AI capabilities to their products and services, from in-car infotainment and drive-thru ordering to music discovery and voice-activated payments.
ISRG – Intuitive Surgical
Strong established and well regarded medical with good exposure to AI medical applications
Click for Pro’s and cons
Below is a general assessment of Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) as an investment, considering both potential advantages (“good”) and risks or drawbacks (“bad”). This is not financial advice; always conduct your own research or consult a qualified advisor.
The “Good” (Bull Case)
- Market Leadership
- Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci surgical systems are the market leader in robotic-assisted surgery.
- A strong installed base of surgical robots creates ongoing revenue from instruments, accessories, and maintenance (a “razor-and-blade” model).
- High Barriers to Entry
- Robotics and surgical systems face significant regulatory, R&D, and capital requirements.
- Intuitive Surgical’s intellectual property and brand recognition deter new competitors.
- Recurring Revenue & Growth Potential
- Once a hospital invests in a da Vinci system, recurring revenue streams come from each procedure: usage fees, disposable instruments, and service contracts.
- Growth tailwinds include expanding surgical indications (more procedure types) and increased global adoption, particularly in Asia.
- Strong Financials
- Historically robust balance sheet, minimal debt, and consistent profitability.
- High gross margins on instruments and accessories.
- Innovation & Pipeline
- Continued R&D into next-generation systems and new procedure categories (e.g., general surgery, thoracic, cardiac, etc.).
- Potential future expansion into other surgical specialties.
The “Bad”
- Valuation Concerns
- ISRG often trades at a premium (high P/E ratio) relative to the broader market and medical-device peers.
- If growth slows, that premium could compress, leading to a price drop.
- Competition
- Other robotic surgery systems from companies like Medtronic and Johnson & Johnson are emerging.
- New entrants or competing technologies (e.g., Vicarious Surgical) could erode Intuitive’s market share over time.
- Regulatory & Litigation Risks
- Medical devices require approval from bodies like the FDA. A failed trial or regulatory setback could hurt the stock.
- Product liability lawsuits or concerns about procedure outcomes could negatively impact the company’s reputation.
- Dependency on Procedure Volumes
- A large portion of Intuitive’s revenue comes from procedures performed with its installed base of robots.
- Economic downturns, hospital budget cuts, or lower elective surgeries (e.g., during pandemic peaks) can reduce procedure volume and revenue.
- Slowing Growth in Developed Markets
- In saturated markets (like the U.S.), future growth depends on deeper penetration of existing hospitals or expansion into new surgical categories.
- Growth challenges or delays in new procedure approvals can stall revenue momentum.
Key Takeaway
- ISRG has a strong position in a growing field (robotic-assisted surgery), with recurring revenue streams and high margins.
- Valuation is typically high, and increased competition plus regulatory uncertainties are the primary risks.
- It remains a leader in robotic surgery technology, but investors should watch whether future growth and earnings can justify the premium price.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
BBAI – Worth a punt
Interesting $1bn company which is tiny and they have a proven product – They had a lot of debt, but t hat got converted to convertable notes on 24th Dec
BigBear.ai (ticker: BBAI) provides AI-driven analytics and cyber engineering solutions, with a primary focus on government and defense clients. While it also has commercial customers, the company’s most prominent contracts tend to be with U.S. federal agencies and military branches, including:
- U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
- Work spans multiple branches (e.g., U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force) to provide data analytics, predictive modeling, and decision-support tools.
- U.S. Intelligence Community
- BigBear.ai has longstanding relationships with various intelligence agencies, delivering AI-driven intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) solutions.
- Other Government Agencies
- Includes the Department of Homeland Security and other federal entities that require advanced analytics for threat assessment and operational planning.
- Commercial & Industrial
- Although BigBear.ai’s roots are in defense/intelligence, the company has begun expanding into sectors like healthcare, finance, and manufacturing. Specific commercial clients are often undisclosed, but BigBear.ai has indicated growing interest among Fortune 500 companies seeking predictive analytics and supply-chain optimization.
BigBear.ai’s product suite—covering data ingestion, analysis, and visualization—is generally geared toward high-stakes, complex environments. As such, government contracts remain a cornerstone of its revenue, with commercial lines providing additional growth opportunities.