Bottom up measure of the revenue available to support today’s datacentre build out.
The likely revenue from AI end users to the GPU/DataCenter is intact and realistic.
AI infrastructure economics work from the customer upward. End users pay for AI-enabled products, and that revenue flows to applications, middleware, hyperscalers, data centers, and GPU suppliers. Only end-user spending generates new revenue; the rest simply passes it upstream.
How much cost to cover
Today’s global AI build-out totals approximately $350–400 billion invested, or about 5–7 million GPUs. Annual operating and capital recovery costs are roughly $150–200 billion per year, which must be supported by downstream revenues.
Where does that $$ come from up the Stack
(Best viewed landscape)
| Sector | Current Annual Revenue (USD B) | AI Revenue Growth (%) | Incremental Revenue (USD B) | Total Post-AI Revenue (USD B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail & Advertising | ~700 | +35–65 | 250–450 | 950–1,150 |
| Enterprise & Government Productivity | ~9,000 (OPEX base) | +2–3 effective capture | 180–280 | 180–280 (net benefit) |
| Defense & National AI Programs | ~800 | +8–12 | 60–120 | 60–120 |
| Financial Services | ~2,000 | +2–3 | 40–60 | 40–60 |
| Healthcare & Life Sciences | ~9,000 | +0.5–1 | 45–90 | 45–90 |
| Industrial & Logistics | ~4,000 | +1–2 | 40–80 | 40–80 |
| Media & Entertainment | ~2,500 | +2–3 | 50–75 | 50–75 |
| Education & Training | ~1,000 | +2–4 | 20–40 | 20–40 |
| Total Downstream Revenue Creation | — | — | ≈ 685–1,195 | ≈ 685–1,195 |
Downstream revenues provide roughly three to six times coverage of the infrastructure’s annual cost ($150–200 billion per year).
Timing
2025–26: Utilization 50–65 percent, with strongest pull-through from retail and advertising.
2026–27: Enterprise, government, and defense spending lift utilization toward 80 percent.
2027–28: Equilibrium reached; downstream revenues of roughly $0.8–1.2 trillion per year meet or exceed the $150–200 billion annual infrastructure cost.
Conclusion
The AI data-center build-out is financially supportable. It is ahead of revenue, not in excess of it. As retail, enterprise, and government adoption matures, the system becomes self-funding within about two years.
Q&A
Q: Does this account for the current build-out pace?
A: Yes. It assumes GPU capacity roughly doubles by 2026, with capex rising 25–35 percent per year and AI-driven revenues expanding 30–40 percent per year. On that trajectory, revenue equilibrium is expected by 2027–2028. If build-outs outpace revenue growth, equilibrium could slip by about one year.
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