Oil Shock Drawdown Comparison

6-month market path from T=0 of each oil shock · Rebased to 100 at event start · Click buttons to switch metric, click events to toggle

Daily closes for the first 30 trading days of each shock · Shows how fast each crisis diverged · 2025 vs 2026 contrast is the key story

■ 2025: Hormuz open, blew over · ■ 1990: real war, contained · ■ 2008: oil spike + credit crisis · ■ 2026: Hormuz shut, escalating

EVENT	T=0	OIL Δ	S&P LOW	NASDAQ LOW	HY LOW	6M RECOV?

* 1979: equities rallied for ~6 months before the deeper decline · † 2022: recovery took 9+ months · Low values = worst point within 6 months of T=0 · 2026 data through 9 Mar (Week ~1.5)

Bull Case

1990 Gulf War path

Quick resolution, Hormuz reopens. S&P −8–12% then full recovery within 4 months.

Base Case

2022 Ukraine path

Protracted but contained. S&P −12–18%, Nasdaq −18–25%. Recovery 6–9 months.

Bear Case

1973 / 2008 path

Hormuz stays shut, oil >$150 sustained. S&P −25–35%, recession. Recovery 12–18+ months.

⚠ Note: Historical data approximate weekly closes from documented sources. The 2026 crisis line will extend as data becomes available. The 1973 HY series is flat (100) as the US high-yield bond market did not exist in its modern form until the late 1970s. The 2025 Twelve-Day War (Jun 13–25) shows the short-sharp-shock pattern where Hormuz was NOT disrupted — the key contrast with 2026.

Oil Shock Drawdown

First 30 Days — Daily Granularity

First 30 days most similar Wars